Developing Price-to-Win Analytical Models by Michael Nash, Independant Consultant (USA)

After Michael approached me last night at the Dolce’s bar - going into a discussion about the importance of processes as a major carrier for any of the competitive routines – I had decided to see his session on price analytics, called price-to-win in competitive bidding.

Michael’s impressive background in defence and aerospace as strategic planner provides a rock solid foundation for in-depth analysis on huge government contracts, oftentimes exceeding dozens of millions of dollars in price tags.

The business development model Michael visualized was impressively simple, yet complete for my judgement.

Although I have to admin that I failed to understand his analytical algorithms and models in all detail he demonstrated impressively that price prediction does work when applied carefully and under utilization of all facts and data that can be drawn from a wide array of publications and sources.

Michael presented examples of press releases that contained a lot of information about rewarded contracts including conditions and even elements that allowed to reverse-engineer pricing equations.

Most impressive to me though was his advice how to best practice models and analysis like the ones he applied and presented:

“Pick historic events and try to calculate a prediction that you would have done at the time. Do it again and again, pick stock market events or Mergers that might have been predictable and act as if working at the time. Compare with the real outcome and try to unveil the flaws in your models…”

I really do like Michael’s approach there as it provides a fun playground in an entirely risk-free environment. In conclusion I would promote Michael’s work to anyone who is looking to predict pricing in an industry that might handle large to huge contracts.

You gotta bring a mathematician though or some profound understanding of complex algorithms as Michael’s presentation was the first and only competitive intelligence presentation that I have ever seen featuring actual mathematical formulas that go way beyond anything I have ever calculated ;-)

Expert Talks: Automation and outsourcing of Competitive Intelligence work (CI 2.0) - Facilitator: Johannes Deltl (D)

This panel discussion was visited much better than anticipated and discussions revolved around issues like legality of electronic spidering and data collection, positioning of the various automation and outsourcing solutions as well as predictions and trends or even day-dreams about the maximum competitive intelligence solution.

Markko Vaarnas, CEO of the Global Intelligence Alliance pointed out his views of the IT solutions landscape that entails web based news clippings and repository functions, Business Intelligence solutions and data collection and presentation which was supported by all panellists.

The major take-away for me was that any outsourcing or automation attempt should be solely based on strong and well defined competitive intelligence key performance indicators and established in concert with all other solutions and activities. Small steps are advisable as is a firm and pro-active follow-up process.

Expert Talks: How to set up corporate CI units? - Facilitated by Hans Hedin of the Global Intelligence Alliance (GIA).

For me the most valuable panel not only because I’d have wished this discussion never to end! Extremely well prepared by Hans (whom I had the pleasure to meet the first time here in Bad Nauheim) this panel included an extremely interesting, high calibre mix of professionals.

Michel Bernaiche whom I consider a friend by now - after using his competitive intelligence model as a best practice case in my work, having experienced a couple of very impressive presentations on his CI function’s capabilities and organization of the intelligence operation and bouncing tons of great, futuristic strategic and conceptual CI ideas back and forth – laid out how and why his organization wants to further build and complete what they consider a world class CI operation.

Knowing a thing or two about Michels ambitions and successes I would actually claim his CI operation to already BE a world class model for his industry!

Some of Michel’s key success and development goals and factors consist of (in my words):
- Call for action including follow-up that should support accountability of the CI tasks
- Awareness about competitive intelligence inside the own organization
- Early warnings and acting upon them (tight into accountability)
- Counter Intelligence

Among the many learnings and messages I took home from that session I’d like to stress Hans’ statement (actually it was based in a strategic hint given by Michel before) that a strongly established mission statement might be one of the very keys to set up a CI function.

While Yulia rubbed the concept of constant and never ending learning and networking in, Michel gave away his major goal for a CI setup:

“Focus on the physical setup of your competitive intelligence processes and push for implementation too!”

It was a pity this session ended so soon, many thanks for to the panellists and Hans to facilitate very professionally!

Expert Talks: Global Competitive Intelligence - Facilitator Carsten Gayer (D)

Please find a comprehensive summary of this expert discussion at the Gyer Consulting web site  or as a local copy (German).

Centralization of Market & Competitive Intelligence; Challenges, Obstacles, Path to Success - Jens Thieme, Ciba Specialty Chemicals (Switzerland)

I have to admit that I was overwhelmed by the participation (130 SCIP tells me, many thanks for seeing my presentation everyone!) and the response by so many session visitors.

Fortunately being the last session that day I was able to take the time and discuss with everyone who was seeking me out afterwards, blocking the room for another 30 minutes after completion.

There were many fellow practitioners who reflected on their own situation as competitive intelligence practitioners and shared their views and insights. Not only was I happy to have provided some value to much of the visitors but I have also learned a lot myself again by this active exchange of practical intelligence work on the ground.

It would be additionally beneficial for any participant of the session to provide some feedback here…